Too Good To Be True

“It’s too good to be true”

No, not necessarily

There’s what you know is possible

There’s what you know is not possible

And there’s what you don’t know is possible

That which you don’t know if it’s possible — that will elude your imagination

You’ll say it’s “too good to be true”, or “too terrible to be true”

And yet it’s true. You just couldn’t have known it. It’s beyond the scope of your cognition

We’re too quick to disregard something as NOT POSSIBLE

If not for those who questioned what is possible — you wouldn’t be able to literally teleport all over the earth, telepathically communicate with whoever, automatically create things from thin air, summon ghosts before your eyes, all kinds of crazy magic

There’s a downside to this ignorance too: for all the catastrophes we incurred as humanity, because we didn’t think it was “possible”, or “likely”

So again it boils down to KNOWING WHAT YOU KNOW, KNOWING WHAT YOU DON’T KNOW

You KNOW what is possible, KNOW what is not possible…and the rest is quite possible. You never saw it happen — but you can’t disprove it happening — therefore it MIGHT AS WELL HAPPEN

This is the correct attitude

It has nothing to do with naivety — and everything to do with reality

There are a few things you can disprove from happening — and infinitely many things which could happen

And what is “too good to be true”?

It’s simply the unlikely taking shape

Something you didn’t think was possible

Or something you didn’t think was likely

(only it turns out to be possible — therefore it’s true — therefore it’s not “too good to be true”)

There’s one funny thing about THE UNLIKELY:

The unlikely is actually 100% likely

It only requires time

If something is probabilistically possible — then it is going to happen with 100% certainty.

It’s just that it may take quite a lot of time / iterations

And iterations we have

There used to be cave and a small tribe and that’s all the iterations that were possible. There were no black swans, no tail events — just you, your cave, your woman, your mammoth, your short life

Today you have the WHOLE WORLD in front of your eyes — with billions of iterations of DIFFERENT HUMANS, doing DIFFERENT THINGS, in DIFFERENT WAYS,

and those things they do they STILL LEVERAGE with all the TECHNOLOGY the humanity has built over the years,

it’s all iterating rapidly

And when you have many iterations — the UNLIKELY happens

The MIRACLES happen

and then you learn to fly

there are two sides to this coin

obviously there’s all the benefit we derive from all that iterating,

however we’re ill-equipped to deal with such extremes

We’re more used to the cave — where truly the “too good to be true” was a useful heuristic, perhaps life-saving

Today however, what is too good to be true?

This goes beyond just technology and the world

Even on an interpersonal level — you’ll meet people who are too unreal to be true

You used to only meet so many people throughout your caveman life.

Now you could meet infinitely many people

And you do

You see different humans everywhere. You may not interact with all of them — but you constantly see new humans: on the street you walk, or on one of the screens you look at

With so many iterations you’re going to meet some unlikely humans

You’re going to meet some unlikely humans

Some will be extremely idiosyncratic

Some will be “too good to be true”

You will be certain that the way they are is NOT INCIDENTAL

There will be someone checks 10 unlikely characteristics at once

There will be someone whose perfect in 10 different ways, not just 1

There will be someone who got lucky 10 times, not once

There will be someone whose maximally ugly in 10 different ways

You will be certain that the way they are is NOT INCIDENTAL — because that would be TOO UNLIKELY

And yet it’s not

With enough iterations — there emerges every possible permutation of something

That includes too-good-to-be-true and too-terrible-to-be-true and too-strange-to-be-true

Are they completely a product of chance? No

Are they completely a product of meaningful, single method? NO

If you think you can find meaning behind those extreme outliers — you’re wrong

Likely you can’t

You have more to learn from 10 random people you meet than from that single extreme outlier

Obviously learn from the outlier too

But chances are there’s no deterministic method which brought him where he is today

You will be foolish to LOOK FOR SECRET

The secret is in doing the ordinary — with extraordinary dedication

So what is too good to be true, really?

It’s THE EXPLANATION

It’s NOT the event itself — which is predetermined by mere nature of reality: the unlikely is 100% certain to happen, with enough time/iterations

The event itself is great but it’s not too great. It had to happen. If it’s possible — it has to happen.

It’s the explanation which is too good to be true — therefore NONSENSE.

It’s our explanations of extreme events — backward rationalised — which are nonsense

It’s the super rich explaining their success, historians explaining Hitler, economists explaining this crisis and that crisis, religious fanatics explaining the origin of the world, all the rest of it

…you’re going to meet some unlikely humans and see some unlikely things, in this XXI century

You’re wise to hold an attitude of HUMILITY before the unknown. You have no idea what is possible

You’re wise to assign less meaning to the extraordinary — understand that it’s a (inevitable) product of chance. Even the most extreme is still utterly inevitable and ordinary, in the grand scheme of things.

Don’t mystify, don’t idealise it, don’t overthink it.

Avoid the fool who thinks nothing’s possible. It’s how he’s protecting himself from the smallness of his mind and smallness of his actions.

Avoid the fool who sells you ready solutions to extreme results. If there was a simple ready solution: anyone would do it. The secrets to EXTREME RESULTS are the ITERATIONS (which is time, work, experimentation, labour, computing power, etc) — which cause you to eventually get lucky.

Go ahead and get lucky, get the too good to be true — then think nothing of it

You are what you did today — that is what you truly control

Focus on what you can do better today — and you’ll get better today

And all the unlikely and too-good and too-strange may or may not happen tomorrow — it’s in gods hands

And the world is infinitely abundant and amazing and astonishing