NO ONE, ABSOLUTELY NO ONE, IS EXEMPT from becoming UTTERLY UTTERLY DERANGED — when REALITY ceases to INVALIDATE THEIR DELUSIONS no one, It doesn’t have to have ANYTHING to do with INTELLIGENCE or INSIGHT or EGO, If REALITY around you is WARPED ENOUGH — you’re actually RATIONAL to BELIEVE what you see TIME AND …
Tag: Cognitive Bias
You’re Confused About Public Sentiment and Power
Public sentiment is just people = number of individuals = individual magnitude doesn’t so much matter = so basic statistics will do, e.g. asking the same question and seeing the answers Likewise for contexts like democracy, where each vote is equal = then you can extrapolate what the state is like politically (albeit politicians …
Object Thinking vs RELATIONAL Thinking
We tend to consider reality in terms of FIXED OBJECTS, ENTITIES, E.g. dog, tree, you, me, Scotsman, Russia, etc. This of course runs into multiple problems, Entity you assume to be fixed — often eludes fixed boundaries, Which poisons your reasoning with category errors, E.g. judging entire race by the behaviour of some of …
Arrogance Reappears at Every Level of Ability
Every level of intelligence and ability has to solve the problem of ARROGANCE anew When you’re stupid you’re arrogant because you don’t know that you don’t know. Your stupid and wrong explanations fool you into false confidence You’ll take the dumbest explanation to the most complex problem, because you have no ability to discern …
Changing Your Mind Doesn’t Make It Right
The default state of knowledge is UNKNOWN Therefore, when you realise what you thought you knew was false — you usually just return to that pitiful state of NOT knowing Sometimes you at least learn what is NOT But often you don’t even know that Often the only thing you learned is that you: …
Modest In Understanding, Cautious In Action, Yet Utterly Arrogant In Speech
-your relation to most things is that “YOU DON’T KNOW” -and you know that you don’t know — because you could test it -you could test your understanding by making predictions -you could BET on your predictions -but you don’t. You know you’d lose Every action you take is a bet on certain state …
Engineer Your Models Of Reality, Or Stay Stupid
If you ever studied anything complex — you know it is necessary to gradually develop one’s understanding complex like physics, math, respectable chess ranking, Even less complex subjects you don’t learn overnight, like driving a car Why would your own ideas be any different? Ideas and opinions and views Why would they magically develop …
You Misattribute What “The OBVIOUS” Is (And Therefore Fail The Debate Before It Even Started)
In any matter there’s the: BASELINE / CONSENSUS / PARADIGM Sometimes it’s simple to gauge, sometimes not Sometimes the consensus of the mass is obviously the reflection of the current state of the technology/culture/economy/politics, e.g. that cars are the default means of transportation. No secret knowledge on the matter that disrupts the consensus Sometimes …
UNLUCKY Overstate The Role Of Luck — LUCKY Understate The Role Of Luck
The unlucky overstate the role of luck The lucky understate the role of luck It boils down to incentives, and even to epistemology (theory of knowledge) On the extreme — the extremely lucky has NO DATA invalidating the role of HIMSELF, and something SPECIAL about himself — in his exceptional outcomes He is, …
The “GRADIENT”, The FUZZY LOGIC of Various Problems
Many problems can’t be broken down to chains with finite-state nodes: -e.g. 2-3 options here, then 2 options from there, then another 4 options, etc. -with each step having an OBJECTIVE SOLUTION, for given ends Instead it’s this network of INTERCONNECTED nodes, with most things fuzzy (but NOT indeterminate) -each node falling SOMEWHERE on …