The unlucky overstate the role of luck The lucky understate the role of luck It boils down to incentives, and even to epistemology (theory of knowledge) On the extreme — the extremely lucky has NO DATA invalidating the role of HIMSELF, and something SPECIAL about himself — in his exceptional outcomes He is, …
Tag: Cognitive Bias
The “GRADIENT”, The FUZZY LOGIC of Various Problems
Many problems can’t be broken down to chains with finite-state nodes: -e.g. 2-3 options here, then 2 options from there, then another 4 options, etc. -with each step having an OBJECTIVE SOLUTION, for given ends Instead it’s this network of INTERCONNECTED nodes, with most things fuzzy (but NOT indeterminate) -each node falling SOMEWHERE on …
Trick Yourself Into Respecting Others
You should trick yourself into respecting others, more than they deserve Indeed, most don’t deserve much respect, Almost innately — for by the virtue of individuality — most can’t possibly share your values You not liking them, not listening to them, not giving them the least of your attention, ultimately thus not giving them …
FAITH Is A Proxy For Reason to Act
FAITH is a proxy for reason — to expose yourself to UNKNOWN You rarely have all the data, all the reasons to do something Therefore you can’t perfectly REASONABLY articulate why you should DO something different, try something new I mean, of course you don’t have all the data about the unknown That …
Good Theory vs Shit Theory
Good theory is like an edifice Good theory is an edifice Bad theory is a juvenile fantasy It’s mashing lego bricks together It’s doodling a tower with crayons It’s a castle made of sand It’s a house of cards Good theory is a structure that doesn’t collapse How does a theory collapse? …
What They Don’t See (Is What Matters)
Often it’s not what you see It’s what you DON’T SEE Of course, with knowledge – knowing what you DON’T KNOW is considered a virtue Everyone knows something But mistakes are made when you think you know something – but you don’t If you know you don’t know – you can work around it, …
How’d You RATE Your Expertise?
“How’d you RATE your EXPERTISE?” I think this is an EXCELLENT question to ask oneself, or to ask someone, when you’re trying to determine the REALITY, make DECISIONS, decide what is TRUE and what is not, decide what is PLAUSIBLE and HOW PLAUSIBLE How’d you rate your EXPERTISE, 1 to 10? Now …
Why Some Super-Successful Go Conspiratorial
Genius is indeed madness When you’re super brilliant — you risk sometimes being super crazy. That’s the price of trying new, crazy things. But if you pull it off — you’re a genius. Not everyone can be a genius. And likely the genius knew EVERYTHING there was to know — BEFORE he transcended it, pushed …
UNLEARNING
Which hand do you brush your teeth with? Try switching to the other hand It’s not so comfortable, is it Now, imagine that the other hand is actually your stronger hand, It ought to perform this task better, But you’re not going to believe it, are you? You trained your other hand to brush your …
Degrees of Probability (Knowledge), Degrees of Stupidity
That which is wrong has to be proven wrong in but a single way And that which is right — has to NOT be proven wrong…. and hopefully after being subjected to a lot of testing So is there more WRONGS or RIGHTS, in this world? Ultimately, there’s just extremely lot of very improbable, and …