“I don’t think I’m qualified” are beautiful words
The observation of this text is not the rather obvious Dunning-Kruger effect
i.e. that the most ignorant are the most ignorant of their own ignorance
the most incompetent don’t even know they are incompetent
and that the most knowledgeable understand just how much is yet unknown
The observation of this text is a more general heuristic, which is:
Those who often say “I don’t know if I’m qualified” — are LIKELY far more QUALIFIED in general
Indeed there are many experts, who, in their expertise, have now been humbled into understanding just how little they know.
But OUTSIDE their expertise they didn’t have that humbling experience
And somehow they failed to GENERALISE the scio me nihil scire rule, the dunning-kruger effect
Despite KNOWING how often the most confident are the most ignorant and clueless — they themselves became confident despite being clueless
And again, it’s quite understandable
Because we have to be confident
We rarely have perfect information
But we MUST make a decision
So it’s understandable
But it’s not ideal
Ideal is to say “I don’t think I’m qualified”
BEFORE you even know if you’re qualified or not
Which is exactly when you will be tempted to assume that your observations and opinions are so insightful
Indeed the heuristic hinges on the fact that even very knowledgeable people, even in multiple disciplines, even very well aware of the Dunning-Kruger effect — they STILL rarely use those beautiful words:
“I don’t think I’m qualified”
It seems it really takes a certain true general wisdom, and general self-awareness, and intellectual integrity — to live by those words, live enlightened by awareness of one’s own ignorance
I like it as a heuristic
Take someone out of their area of expertise — and see how quick they are to announce:
“I don’t think I’m qualified”
“I don’t know”
“From the little I know it would seem…”
etc.
Idiots of course will never use this phrase
But some great geniuses will fail this test as well
The more you win, the more of an ultracrepidarian you become, alas
It’s a useful heuristic to know when to trust someone’s authority
It’s a useful heuristic to know when someone is poised to make a successful transition to a different field
To sum it up, again:
Being aware of the Dunning-Kruger effect, being aware of one’s area of expertise, is one thing
But to PRESUPPOSE one’s IGNORANCE, one’s LACK OF EXPERTISE — seems to take yet deeper level of epistemic humility
And the CRUX of the problem is that 99% of our decisions MUST BE MADE — DESPITE being ANYTHING but experts
So make those decisions
Just don’t forget that you’re clueless
And admit:
“I don’t think I’m qualified”