“What is your opinion on…”
The dumbest fucking question
You’re not supposed to have an opinion
You’re not qualified
You’ve no skin in the game
You having opinion DOESN’T FUCKING MATTER
I mean literally
It doesn’t impact you in ANY WAY, if you have an “OPINION” on this subject
There’s a small number of things that you actually DO
Small number of things on which you actually have an impact, and which impact you
THAT’S when you actually have an opinion
You have experience, you have insights, and you have SKIN IN THE GAME
Your opinion actually matters
If to no one else — then to you
AND,
if you’re wrong — you’ll know
And if you won’t know — then it didn’t matter, after all
Then your opinion was worthless, after all
But if it mattered, and you’re right or wrong — you’ll know
And everything else?
Opinion on everything else?
Opinion the greater the distance between your agency and the relevant outcome…?
The greater the distance — the more you should be using the word “GUESS”
I think that’s the right word:
“a GUESS”
“I guess that mr president will do this and that”
“I guess that the war will end with this side’s victory”
“I guess that the economy will go into recession”
blabla
This is the right way to phrase it
And when you’re wrong — there’s no surprise. You were guessing
And when you’re wrong — there’s little consequences. Because those matters are quite outside your control, quite outside your agency, quite outside your responsibility, quite outside your area of expertise
And admitting that you’re guessing, even when you’re VERY ACCURATE in your guesses, is in no way diminishing your PRESCIENCE
If anything it enhances it
You were no expert, you were NOT responsible — and yet you STILL got it right,
Unlike all the rest of them armchair experts, internet warriors, thought leaders, journalists, etc
I think this is the problem
In the past, it would have been quite difficult for you to PRETEND to be an expert stonemason, if your trade was armourer, or carpenter
Your common sense intuition about your circle of competence was correct
Fast forward to the information age,
now you’re an expert stonemason, because you watched it on the fucking tv
You’re also expert on economy, geopolitics, sociology, philosophy, business, and also medicine and epidemiology and quantum physics
Fast forward to the TWITTER age
You’re not only an expert
You’re a THOUGHT LEADER
You don’t want for them to come hear your opinion
You KNOW they WANT your opinion
You KNOW you have to tell them your opinions on everything
Opinions on the war, opinions on the culture, opinions on the first commandment, opinions on the open society, opinions on the public health, opinions on EVERYTHING
That’s what the ALGORITHM wants
It wants you to HAVE AN OPINION — so that other idiots can read it
So that they can be outraged by it
Or agree with it — and thus themselves have an opinion
And then CONTRIBUTE their own opinion on top of it, add their own hot take, their invaluable insight
So that there’s even more activity, even more action, even more going on
Except there’s NOTHING going on
Because NONE OF YOU have any clue
None of you have opinions
It’s, as we call it, an echochamber
Now,
I always say: you often have to make MORE DECISIONS than you’re able to make INFORMED DECISIONS
And it’s ok
And again, the word “GUESS” would do well
The words “I don’t think I’m qualified” would do well
And then DO what you have to do
GUESS, if you have to
Life’s a guess anyway. It’s short, you die, and can’t go back even a day
But
DON’T FUCKING PRESUME TO HAVE A CLUE
and AGAIN, this has nothing to do with MODESTY and HUMBLENESS
If you DO HAVE A CLUE — then everyone else can fuck off. It’s your business, your money, your time, your life
The one person who suffers the most if you’re wrong — is YOU
BUT,
If it’s just your “opinion”, and you have no fucking clue
Then besides being an idiot — you’re a net negative to society
You are the one spreading misinformation
You make the world more stupid
And it’s only NATURAL that someone who HAS a clue — is disgusted with you
They think you’re a clown
Because you are
Everything coming out of your mouth is now a joke
Proven bullshitter once — always bullshitter
This is what I think about “opinions”
It was bad 100 years ago, on the fucking newspaper
It was worse 50 years ago, in the TV
It was worse still 25 years ago
It was devastatingly bad 15 years ago
It’s fucking LOWEST OF LOWS now
And I’m not no doomer
But we are really, really stupid now
Because we think we can, and think we should have an opinion
It’s time to shut the fuck up
At least use the word “GUESS”
if we did so much, society would be transformed
Experts would be experts again
Actions would speak louder than words,
But words would have meaning too,
And that which would be proven to be untrue would thus be understood to NOT exist
And the one wilfully perpetrating that LIE, or that ignorance — would in turn cease to effectively exist, in the discourse
Unless he at least knew to communicate that he was no expert, that he had no skin in the game, that really he was GUESSING,
At least use the word “GUESS”
And maybe we can start agreeing again