There can be one compelling HYPOTHESIS… or a BUNCH of compelling hypothesis

-doesn’t mean that one is right

-doesn’t mean ANY of those many are right

 

We know something to be right because it’s not only COMPELLING and LOGICAL — but also it’s WELL TESTED

–PREFERABLY IN REAL WORLD, EMPIRICALLY

-but subjected to POWERFUL CRITICISM will do if former is unavailable

 

Alas there are subjects where we REALLY WANT TO HAVE AN OPINION — but don’t have ability or resources or willingness to do ALL THE NECESSARY TESTINGS and CRITIQUING

subjects where we really care about the outcome

This is the very root of WISHFUL THINKING

 

Thus,

Our WISHFUL THINKING and fucking DELUSION is directly proportional to:

-perceived RELEVANCE of the subject

-complexity and OPAQUENESS of the subject

-existence of a COMPELLING HYPOTHESIS

-our COGNITIVE LIMITATIONS

-and general INTELLECTUAL and spiritual INSINCERITY

 

Indeed,

RELEVANCE means DESIRE

DESIRE means you may be rather reluctant to give up your fantasies,

which give meaning to your life,

which gratify you, give you pleasure

You may rather prefer it over reality

You may rather prefer it over being right

Over logic and evidence

 

indeed

The more COMPLICATED the subject, and the LESSER your INTELLECTUAL TOOLS — the less likely you are to PENETRATE IT and acquire UNDERSTANDING

And the less likely you are to even realise just how CLUELESS you are (Dunning Kruger effect)

 

Finally, add the final utterly DESTABILISING INGREDIENT:

COMPELLING HYPOTHESIS

So that, despite having found no real proof, having only scratched the surface of the deep lake — you yet manage to go home with something

You yet manage to believe something

And you want to believe

 

Combine those,

and you have a recipe for DELUSION

 

This is a great formula

Because we can reverse engineer it

And protect OURSELVES from delusion

And even REVERSE it, perhaps

 

This is a great formula

-Use it on yourself, to realise when you’re PRONE to SELF-DELUSION

-Use it on others, to realise when THEY are being delusional

-And finally, use it when CONSTRUCTING INCENTIVES — to prevent DELUSION before it even happens