“A broken clock is right twice a day”
Perhaps you’ve heard this phrase
Have you heard about survivorship bias?
Survivorship bias is when you come to a conclusion about the whole — drawing only on limited data which has passed certain selection process, i.e. “survived”
Now it’s time to combine the BROKEN CLOCK — with “survivorship bias”
Someone being RIGHT, especially on dramatic matters — will be dramatically amplified in the media
But the times that person has been wrong previously of course will not be amplified
The audience, the vested interest — will cherry pick this one, or two, or even a number of accurate “prophecies”
And be lead to believe that someone is a bona fide prophet,
Also
I said that you should “play the prediction game”
INDEED,
Anyone has a lot of opinions
And anyone can repeat a lot of “facts”
Such man is no better than a fucking clown, who can entertain with his mouth and juggle
Show me someone who can predict the future — and I show you someone who understand reality
Therefore yes, I tell you to play the prediction game. THAT’S the true wisdom, insight, intelligence,
But here’s the deal,
Like the media amplifying dumb guess of some self-important finance guru,
So YOU can amplify in your mind all those times you were correct,
Thus you can twist that concept of being great at predicting,
You can falsify, fake your own prediction record,
For your own ego’s sake
Human capacity for self-deception is boundless
The more intelligent you are the more intelligent your self-deception
So,
First beware of idiots who have no clue and no track record of predicting the future
This includes yourself,
Then beware of padded records of future predictions
Do you know who I want to meet?
Someone who shows you the times he was WRONG
In some parts of the world we learned to celebrate failures — knowing them to be valuable lessons, and testament of grit
We should much the same way celebrate our poor predictions
Our epistemic failures
So that those times that we are RIGHT — we KNOW it to be valuable, or just dumb luck