What They Don’t See (Is What Matters)

Often it’s not what you see

It’s what you DON’T SEE

Of course, with knowledge – knowing what you DON’T KNOW is considered a virtue

Everyone knows something

But mistakes are made when you think you know something – but you don’t

If you know you don’t know – you can work around it, you can be cautious, and you can survive

But I’m talking about a more prosaic case

How many domains are prone to selection biases?

How often do you actually get a truly random, truly inclusive sample?

So that you can actually generalise about the whole?

And existence of selection biases is not unknown

But how aware were you of them?

How mindful are you of them?

And how aware are you of HOW AWARE OTHERS ARE, of them?

Yes, how aware are you of HOW AWARE OTHERS ARE, of then?

You trust what others say about what they observed

They say: “everyone believes this”,

They say: “that never happens”

They say: “no one supports this and that person, this and that state, this and that idea, ANY MORE”

They say: “obviously the world has gone mad”

etc.

Except most people’s perspectives are limited to THEIR WORLD

Whatever is shown on THEIR screens

Whoever they meet in THEIR lives

Their neighbourhoods

Their office

And again, my gripe is not merely with existence of selection biases, or biases in general

This is to be expected

Fools will think they view the world objectively, and in sampling smart fragment of the world – obtain insights into the nature of the entire world

That’s foolish, but that’s a separate problem

What I’m asking is – are you, meta, aware of how UNRELIABLE most people’s reports are, because of those selection biases?

And just how MANY people are prone to horrendous selection biases?

And how many DOMAINS are prone to selection biases?

Again, my conclusion is: we’re even more ignorant than in our worst fears

Therefore,

ALWAYS ASK:

-Are you seeing the ENTIRE PICTURE?

-Could what you’re NOT SEEING actually be THE MOST of the picture?

-Or could what you’re NOT seeing actually be the gold, or the poison, or the precipice, or the ladder?

And then, maybe more importantly:

-Is the person having all those opinions SEEING the entire picture?

-What are they possibly NOT seeing? And could it matter?

And once you have answers for those questions,

you have already averted disaster

And sometimes that is all it takes to be extraordinary

Just to be less blind