In any matter there’s the: BASELINE / CONSENSUS / PARADIGM Sometimes it’s simple to gauge, sometimes not Sometimes the consensus of the mass is obviously the reflection of the current state of the technology/culture/economy/politics, e.g. that cars are the default means of transportation. No secret knowledge on the matter that disrupts the consensus Sometimes …
Tag: Delusion
UNLUCKY Overstate The Role Of Luck — LUCKY Understate The Role Of Luck
The unlucky overstate the role of luck The lucky understate the role of luck It boils down to incentives, and even to epistemology (theory of knowledge) On the extreme — the extremely lucky has NO DATA invalidating the role of HIMSELF, and something SPECIAL about himself — in his exceptional outcomes He is, …
why IMPROVING EVERYTHING cures the biggest problem: DELUSION
We are told to focus, To get really good at “one thing” When we are introduced — we are introduced by what we’re known for, and what we do When we waste couple years of our life — we do so studying and preparing to do something specific in our lives When we have a …
To Lie Without Lying You Must First Lie To Yourself
There’s a way to LIE, without committing the sin of lying All you have to do is convince yourself that you’re not really lying It’s not so difficult, actually: E.g. you could say: -“It wasn’t clear” -“THE TRUTH is IN THE MIDDLE” -“That’s not what I meant” -“I was taken out of context” -“You …
FAITH Is A Proxy For Reason to Act
FAITH is a proxy for reason — to expose yourself to UNKNOWN You rarely have all the data, all the reasons to do something Therefore you can’t perfectly REASONABLY articulate why you should DO something different, try something new I mean, of course you don’t have all the data about the unknown That …
Good Theory vs Shit Theory
Good theory is like an edifice Good theory is an edifice Bad theory is a juvenile fantasy It’s mashing lego bricks together It’s doodling a tower with crayons It’s a castle made of sand It’s a house of cards Good theory is a structure that doesn’t collapse How does a theory collapse? …
Why Some Super-Successful Go Conspiratorial
Genius is indeed madness When you’re super brilliant — you risk sometimes being super crazy. That’s the price of trying new, crazy things. But if you pull it off — you’re a genius. Not everyone can be a genius. And likely the genius knew EVERYTHING there was to know — BEFORE he transcended it, pushed …
Patriotism Is an Outdated And Dangerous Meme
Patriotism is but religion And religion is but delusion Useful delusion, mind you If it was completely useless — we would have evolved it away Question is — how useful? Or rather — is it still the most USEFUL mental model to hold, around those matters? It’s probably not, is it Because …
Degrees of Probability (Knowledge), Degrees of Stupidity
That which is wrong has to be proven wrong in but a single way And that which is right — has to NOT be proven wrong…. and hopefully after being subjected to a lot of testing So is there more WRONGS or RIGHTS, in this world? Ultimately, there’s just extremely lot of very improbable, and …
Are we the most IGNORANT ever now?
It’s human condition to be overconfident Also, we know the most ever The total of knowledge is greatest ever Not to mention our access to this knowledge is orders upon orders of magnitude greater Also, average person knows most ever We can read, we can (know how to) use cars and internet, we …